The F-22 Raptor, considered the most sophisticated fighter jet in the US arsenal and a peak of air superiority technology, faces an uncertain future in the realm of modern warfare.

As of now, the US Air Force operates a limited fleet of 186 Raptors, a number that falls short of the original vision of 750 units. 

Born out of Cold War objectives, the F-22 was designed to outclass any enemy fighter jet, a mandate it fulfilled with flying colors. With unmatched stealth, supercruise, and maneuverability, it became the embodiment of air dominance.

Yet, the shifting sands of global conflict and the emergence of asymmetrical warfare, most notably after the events of 9/11, led to the early termination of the Raptor’s production in 2011.

The era of counter-terror and counter-insurgency operations did not warrant the advanced capabilities of the F-22, and consequently, the F-22’s role in these conflicts was limited.

The decision to cap the F-22 fleet at 186 was not only a reflection of the changing nature of warfare but also the prohibitive costs associated with restarting the production line.

According to a 2017 report submitted to Congress, the United States would have to invest approximately $50 billion to procure just 194 additional fighters, with unit costs ranging from $206 to $216 million per fighter.

This price point stands in stark contrast to that of other modern fighters like the F-35 or the F-15EX, making a production restart economically daunting.

One of the greatest ironies of the F-22’s situation is its aging technology. Although it remains a formidable force, it was designed in the 1980s and is approaching the end of its service life.

Furthermore, with only a portion of the 186 jets considered combat-ready, America’s air-superiority capabilities are in question. The F-22’s operational capacity is shrinking due to the natural attrition of active airframes, raising concerns over the Air Force’s readiness for a high-end fight.

However, the Raptor is not without modernization efforts. The aircraft has undergone a series of upgrades to maintain relevance in the current threat environment, despite the looming end date for its service. Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-22, has been contracted for a $10.9 billion modernization effort, ensuring that the jet remains a crucial asset in U.S. defense.

More than 80 F-22s have already received upgrades, with over 100 expected to be modified within the current year. These updates include a new weapons installation, the addition of external fuel tanks for increased range, and an ongoing shift toward an open systems architecture to ensure the Raptor can evolve with emerging technologies.

Yet, the F-22’s modernization does not negate the reality that its days are numbered. The Air Force has signaled its intent to begin retiring the Raptor fleet by 2030, with a recent budget request to divest 32 older units. Although Congress has blocked this attempt for now, it underscores a pressing need: the development of a successor. The Next Generation Air Dominance program (NGAD) promises to fill this gap, with a contract expected to be awarded next year.

NGAD is anticipated to carry forward the lessons learned from the Raptor program and incorporate even more advanced technologies to ensure U.S. air superiority well into the future.

In summary, the F-22 Raptor continues to be a critical component of the U.S. Air Force’s strategic capabilities. Its impressive performance and technological advantages ensure its place as the apex of air combat fighters. Nonetheless, with a finite fleet and looming obsolescence, the Raptor’s role in future conflicts is indeed debatable, paving the way for the next evolution of aerial combat supremacy through the NGAD program.

Relevant articles:
– The Air Force Only Has 186 F-22 Raptor Stealth Fighters, The National Interest
– Air Force F-22 Fighter Program, Every CRS Report
– How Lockheed is positioning the F-22 to fly into the 2040s, defenseone.com
– F-22 Raptor, AF.mil