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    Bracing for Impact: Our World Inches Closer to the 1.5°C Global Warming Threshold

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    Climate change remains one of the most pressing concerns of our time, with the delicate balance of our planet’s ecosystems hanging in the balance.

    Recent reports show that we are perilously close to a tipping point: the 1.5°C rise in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels, a threshold that scientists warn could precipitate catastrophic environmental changes.

    The year 2023 began with a stark reminder of the planet’s fever as Earth recorded its warmest early June on record.

    Palm and tropical beach in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
    Palm and tropical beach in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic

    This follows a May that saw sea-surface temperatures hitting unprecedented highs for the time of year.

    Geneva, Switzerland - October 1, 2017: The WMO building in Geneva. The WMO is the World Meteorological Organization and an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 191 member States
    Geneva, Switzerland – October 1, 2017: The WMO building in Geneva. The WMO is the World Meteorological Organization and an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 191 member States

    These alarming trends are encapsulated in a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, which suggests a 66% likelihood that we may see the annual average global temperature rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next five years, since 2023.

    In December 2015, countries worldwide agreed on the Paris Agreement, committing to endeavors aimed at restricting the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5⁰C above pre-industrial levels.

    Coincidentally, during this period, a potent El Niño event was nearing its zenith, leading to estimations suggesting that for a brief period, the global mean temperature exceeded the 1.5⁰C threshold above pre-industrial levels for that month.

    This likely marked the initial instance of such a temperature breach during the industrial era.

    This was captured by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which reported that we experienced “remarkable global warmth.”

    Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S, emphasized the gravity of these findings: “Monitoring our climate is more important than ever to determine how often and for how long global temperatures are exceeding the 1.5 degrees threshold. Every single fraction of a degree matters to avoid even more severe consequences of the climate crisis.”

    Drought land
    Drought land

    But what does crossing the 1.5°C mark mean? It is vital to note that the Paris Agreement targets concern long-term average temperatures, typically over two to three decades, rather than short-term spikes.

    salvador, bahia / brazil - april 13, 2013: Lagoa seca is seen on Avenida Luiz Viana in the city of Salvador. *** Local Caption *** .
    salvador, bahia / brazil – april 13, 2013: Lagoa seca is seen on Avenida Luiz Viana in the city of Salvador. *** Local Caption *** .

    However, the frequency and duration of these temperature exceedances bear close monitoring.

    heat wave in the city and hand showing thermometer for high temp
    heat wave in the city and hand showing thermometer for high temp

    The C3S has developed an app that offers the public real-time data on global temperatures and their steady climb towards the 1.5°C global warming threshold.

    Thermometer in a garden
    Thermometer in a garden

    The 1.5°C mark is not an arbitrary number but a critical threshold that has been set with the intention of preventing the worst impacts of climate change.

    table with trees, windmills and solar panels models on grass in office
    table with trees, windmills and solar panels models on grass in office

    Mitigation efforts must be scaled up substantially. The transition to renewable energy sources, improved energy efficiency, and carbon capture technologies all play a part in the multifaceted approach necessary to tackle climate change.

    Relevant articles:
    Global Warming of 1.5 ºC —, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    Summary for Policymakers — Global Warming of 1.5 ºC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
    Tracking breaches of the 1.5⁰C global warming threshold, Copernicus Climate
    Limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, Imperial College London

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