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    The Future of Sea Power: Are Aircraft Carriers a Dwindling Giant in Modern Warfare?

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    The littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS 10) leads a formation followed by the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) frigate RSS Formidable (FFS 68), the dry cargo ship USNS Amelia Earhart (T-AKE 6), the guided-missile destroyer USS Momsen (DDG 92)” by Official U.S. Navy Imagery is licensed under CC BY 2.0

    Aircraft carriers, once the undisputed champions of naval supremacy, are facing a period of scrutiny and reassessment.

    The introduction of new missile technologies and the evolving nature of global conflicts have sparked a vigorous debate on their relevance in today’s defense strategies.

    USS Montgomery (LCS 8) and USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS 10) operate in the South China Sea, Jan. 28, 2020.” by Official U.S. Navy Imagery is licensed under CC BY 2.0

    The United States Navy’s reliance on aircraft carriers as a cornerstone of its naval force has been a tradition dating back to World War II.

    USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) conducts carrier qualifications.” by Official U.S. Navy Imagery is licensed under CC BY 2.0

    A key symbol of power projection, these floating airbases have been instrumental in establishing and maintaining America’s global presence.

    The USS Ford, with a whopping construction cost of $13.3 billion and an annual maintenance bill of $1 billion, represents the pinnacle of American carrier capabilities.

    The Ford-class carriers cost nearly double the Nimitz-class ships they replace, but their capabilities are not twice as high.

    Yet, proponents argue that the obsolescence of carriers is far from imminent.

    100127-N-1854W-070
    ATLANTIC OCEAN (Jan. 27, 2010) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) is underway in the Atlantic Ocean conducting sea trials. George H.W. Bush will return to homeport at Naval Station Norfolk, Va. to begin the workup cycle towards deployment after an extensive seven-month post shakedown availability and selective restrictive availability trials. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communications Specialist 1st Class Jason Winn/Released)

    Lessons from history teach us that the gap between the emergence of new weapons and their effective use in war can be significant.

    080123-N-0535P-580
    PERSIAN GULF (Jan. 23, 2008) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), left, performs a replenishment at sea with the Military Sealift Command fast combat support ship USNS Arctic (T-AOE 8) and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81). Truman and embarked Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 3 are on a scheduled deployment in support of Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom and maritime security operations. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jay C. Pugh (Released)

    Moreover, countermeasures to protect carriers are numerous and evolving. From their inherent mobility, evading missile strikes, to sophisticated cyberwarfare and air defenses, carriers are not sitting ducks.

    060618-N-8492C-276 Pacific Ocean (June 18, 2006) – The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), foreground, USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63), center, USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) and their associated carrier strike groups steam in formation while 17 aircraft from the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps fly over them during a joint photo exercise (PHOTOEX) while preparing for exercise Valiant Shield 2006. Valiant Shield focuses on integrated joint training among U.S. military forces, enabling real-world proficiency in sustaining joint forces and in detecting, locating, tracking and engaging units at sea, in the air, on land and cyberspace in response to a range of mission areas. U.S. Navy photo by Chief PhotographerÕs Mate Todd P. Cichonowicz (RELEASED)

    Their sheer presence as a deterrent remains potent. The lethality of aircraft carriers stems from the weapons they carry, with Nimitz- and Ford-class carriers armed with strike fighters like F/A-18E and F/A-18F Super Hornets, along with anti-aircraft and missile defenses.

    050315-N-3241H-001
    Indian Ocean (Mar. 15, 2005) – The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) underway in the Indian Ocean prior to flight operations. The Carl Vinson Strike Group is currently on deployment to promote peace and stability and respond to emergent events overseas. USS Carl Vinson will end its deployment with a homeport shift to Norfolk, Va., and will conduct a three-year refuel and complex overhaul. U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate 3rd Class Dusty Howell (RELEASED)

    Another key aspect of carriers’ lethality is their ability to sustain attacks. Aircraft carriers’ weapons can strike numerous targets on land or at sea daily during conflicts.

    Lockheed Martin MQ-25” by aeroman3 is licensed under CC PDM 1.0

    As the U.S. Navy transitions from Nimitz to Ford-class carriers, the introduction of cutting-edge F-35C jets, advanced radar planes, and the MQ-25 unmanned tanker promises to further bolster the carrier air wing’s capabilities.

    An F-35C Lightning II is tested aboard USS Dwight D. Eisenhower.” by LockheedMartin19 is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

    These advancements ensure that carriers will continue to be a geopolitical weapon of war for decades.

    An F-35C Lightning II, assigned to the “Argonauts” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 147, launches off the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) during Annual Exercise (ANNUALEX) 2021.” by Official U.S. Navy Imagery is licensed under CC BY 2.0

    Nonetheless, the budgetary decisions and strategic direction in the coming years will be pivotal.

    100908-D-4748B-024
    PORTSMOUTH, Va. (Sept. 8, 2010) Tugboats guide the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) on the Elizabeth River to its new berth at Norfolk Naval Shipyard. Dwight D. Eisenhower will begin a six-month Planned Incremental Availability in October to refurbish and conduct intensive maintenance on shipboard systems. Dwight D. Eisenhower recently completed a seven-month deployment to the U.S. 5th and 6th Fleet areas of responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo/Released)

    The FY 2025 Defense Budget reveals plans to delay the procurement of the next carrier, which raises concerns about sustaining the industrial base and carrier fleet size.

    Relevant articles:
    U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers Are Nowhere Near Obsolete, The National Interest
    The US is not serious about aircraft carriers—or their industrial base, Defense One
    The Carrier’s Role is Narrowing, U.S. Naval Institute

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