In the shadow of the ongoing war in Ukraine, General Martin Herem, Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, has offered a candid assessment of NATO’s readiness and Estonia’s defensive capabilities in the face of potential Russian aggression.
Speaking at various events and interviews, Gen. Herem emphasized the importance of swift mobilization, adequate ammunition, and the presence of NATO forces as key components of Estonia’s strategy to deter and, if necessary, repel an attack.
Estonia, a front-line NATO member, has been closely monitoring Russia’s military operations and preparing for any scenario. Gen. Herem stated unequivocally that there is no doubt about a NATO victory should Russia attack, but cautioned that such a conflict would be anything but clean-cut.
The grim reality is that while a Russian incursion might ultimately fail to occupy key Estonian cities, the invasion could nonetheless wreak havoc and exploit societal tensions, a tactic that Russia has demonstrated a proficiency in.
“The Russian army has no need to occupy Tallinn. It can run rampant in the town of Põlva for a month, turn it to another Bucha, and then withdraw — whereas we will be left quarrelling with each other,” Gen. Herem said, outlining the psychological and social ramifications of Russian warfare tactics.
Acknowledging the constant evolution of modern warfare, Gen. Herem commended the success of Ukrainian naval drones in the Black Sea and stressed Estonia’s capacity to challenge the Russian Baltic Fleet with anti-ship missiles now in the arsenal of several regional allies.
The regional security landscape has shifted significantly with the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, a move that has been welcomed by Baltic nations and poses a strategic dilemma for Russia.
Estonia’s defense plan involves a comprehensive approach that includes manpower, proper equipment maintenance, immediate mobilization capabilities, and ensuring that reservists are well-integrated into the military structure with clear roles.
The general highlighted that the reserve system is only functional when civilians – be they bank clerks, carpenters, or taxi drivers – have been assigned particular tasks in the military and there are enough reserves to meet military needs.
The conversation also touched on contemporary challenges such as cyber and hybrid attacks. Gen. Herem noted that while such non-lethal means can cause disruption, Estonia has proven resilient, quickly recovering from cyber assaults like the three billion DDoS attacks it faced, which went largely unnoticed by the public.
On the topic of Estonia’s lack of a permanent NATO brigade, Gen. Herem suggested that there are pros and cons.
While Latvia and Lithuania may benefit from such arrangements, there is uncertainty about when these capabilities will be ready and whether they will precede any aggressive moves from Russia.He expressed a preference for a unit assigned to joint practicing in Estonia now rather than a commitment to have a unit deployed in the future.
Looking to the horizon, Gen. Herem sees three preconditions for Ukrainian success on the battlefield that could also apply to Estonia: decisive provision of military assistance, delivery of aid without limitations, and additional training at all levels.
He also addressed the speculation around foreign troop deployment in Ukraine, clarifying that it could mean western personnel reinforcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces in support roles rather than engaging in combat.
Gen Martin Herem was appointed as the Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces in 2018 and is set to step down in 2024. Previously, he held the position of the Deputy Commander of the Estonian National Defence College (ENDC) and became the Commandant of the ENDC in 2013.
Relevant articles:
– Martin Herem: A NATO Victory Is Not in Question – But the Fight Will Be Ugly, International Centre for Defence and Security
– EDF chief: I am absolutely certain Estonia could win a war, ERR
– Estonian defense chief: West now considers Russia threat more likely, ERR