The serene blue skies seen from an airplane window mask a hidden turbulence, increasingly agitated by a warming climate. Recent incidents of severe clear-air turbulence (CAT), including a fatal episode on a Singapore Airlines flight, have cast a spotlight on this perilous phenomenon.
As the atmosphere’s response to rampant carbon emissions becomes ever more volatile, travelers and the aviation industry alike are grappling with the realities of a changing climate aloft.
Clear-air turbulence, the kind that occurs suddenly without the warning shroud of storm clouds, is on the rise. Just last week, passengers aboard a Singapore Airlines flight were violently shaken by such turbulence, tragically resulting in one fatality due to a heart condition and numerous injuries. This was not an isolated event. Similar encounters with unexpected turbulence have been reported, including a turbulent SpiceJet flight from Mumbai to Kolkata on May 1, 2022, and an Air Blue flight in Pakistan on June 11, 2022. Passengers like Nasreen Pasha recall the sudden transformation from a tranquil journey to a “rough and bumpy” ride, shaking incessantly.
Experts are increasingly linking this turbulence to the broader impacts of climate change. Islamabad-based scientist Mohammad Umer Alvi points to “human-induced environmental degradation” as a culprit for “unsafe skies.” Rising temperatures and deforestation, he says, are destabilizing the atmosphere, particularly around densely populated urban areas. Climate scientist Muhammad Ayub Khan echoes these concerns, highlighting the impact of extreme heat and shifting jet streams on aviation safety and infrastructure.
A study by the University of Reading published in 2019 reveals that warmer air resulting from carbon emissions has ramped up wind shear in jet streams, amplifying CAT globally.
Over the North Atlantic, severe CAT occurrences have spiked by 55% from 1979 to 2020, presenting a new challenge for an industry already criticized for its environmental footprint.
The aviation industry is expanding, especially in South Asia, with forecasts predicting a significant rise in passenger departures and contributions to GDP over the next two decades. With this growth comes the heightened risk of turbulence-induced delays and hazards. The need for early warnings and onboard detection instruments has never been greater, a sentiment echoed by experts like Jayanarayana Kuttippurath, who stresses the urgency of enhancing our capabilities to predict and manage such events.
Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, from India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, urges passengers to be more attentive to the “increase in turbulence and its related dangers,” emphasizing the collective effort needed to confront these challenges. The aviation industry, despite its role in climate change, must join in these efforts to mitigate the repercussions on air travel.
Notably, researchers are experimenting with green technology to reduce emissions, a pursuit that could eventually soften the blow of CAT. Innovators like Sarah Qureshi, equipped with a doctorate in aerospace engineering, aim to diminish contrails and the warming effects of high-flying cirrus clouds, further contributing to global warming. The path to a greener aviation industry seems to be through upgraded engines, enhanced aerodynamics, light composite materials, and bio-based sustainable aviation fuels.
While technological advancements unfold, the need for improved forecasting of turbulence is paramount. Birds, with their innate knack for navigating tumultuous air currents, might hold the key to unlocking more precise turbulence predictions. Research into bird flight patterns at different altitudes has the potential to enhance our understanding of air dynamics, offering insights that could be applied to future air travel and UAV designs.
The incidents of CAT are stark reminders of the intricate interplay between our actions on the ground and their consequences in the air. As the skies grow bumpier and the links between climate change and air travel become clearer, the call to action intensifies. The industry must adapt, innovate, and unite in the face of this clear and present turbulence. The journey ahead may be rough, but through research, technological advances, and a commitment to sustainability, smoother skies may yet be on the horizon.
Relevant articles:
– Climate change is fuelling turbulence and posing threats to South Asian aviation, Eco-Business
– Singapore Airlines turbulence: why climate change is making flights rougher, nature.com
– Aircraft turbulence is worsening with climate change. Studying birds could help, BBC
– Climate change is fuelling turbulence on some of our most common flight paths, Australian Broadcasting Corporation