Good news on the arid horizon: a new study published in the Journal of Climate is providing a glimmer of hope the next 25 years of the Colorado River.

The research predicts a 70 percent likelihood that the forthcoming quarter-century will be wetter than the previous one.

Positive developments concerning the Colorado River are rare, as its reservoirs – the two largest in the United States – have reached record lows, and policymakers are at a stalemate regarding its future.

The effects of climate change have caused more than 20 years of megadrought, putting immense pressure on the water supply for 40 million people in the Southwest.

Until now, estimates of Colorado River water supply have primarily focused on temperature-related impacts. Climate change has led to higher temperatures in the region, resulting in a range of environmental factors that reduce the amount of water flowing into rivers and reservoirs.

For instance, snow melts faster and evaporates more quickly, while parched soil absorbs snowmelt before it can reach the closest stream.

The Colorado River, the lifeblood of the American Southwest. Since 2000, a relentless megadrought has strained this vital artery, its two largest reservoirs plunging to historic lows.

However, a study from the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) offers a plot twist: predictions of increased precipitation in the Upper Basin states may swell the river’s flows by 5% to 7% between 2026 and 2050.

The research, grounded in data from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, may seem to counter a narrative fraught with dry forecasts.

Balaji Rajagopalan, a co-author of the study, elucidates the need for caution amid this potential boon.

“All of our thinking, our acting, our management should be humble and recognize the nature in which we live, which is, yeah, you have water, but it is very highly variable,” he asserts.

This research enters the fray as policymakers grapple with renegotiating water-sharing rules to replace guidelines expiring in 2026.

The findings highlight the pressing need for flexible, adaptable rules that can pivot with the climate’s whim. There remains a 4% chance that river flows could drop by a stark 20%.

Skepticism is a necessary companion in such discussions. Brad Udall, a climate scientist from Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Institute, who was not part of the research, expressed some reservations about the study’s conclusions and implications.

While Udall holds the authors of the paper in high esteem, he mentioned that certain aspects of the study’s methodology left him feeling somewhat uneasy.

Relevant articles:
– A Rare Dose of Hope for the Colorado River as New Study Says Future May Be Wetter, insideclimatenews.org
– Growing Impact: Climate, crops, and the Colorado River, psu.edu
– Can climate change add water to the Colorado River?, KSL NewsRadio
– Colorado River losing vast amounts of water due to warming climate, study finds, Los Angeles Times