Iran has finalized plans to purchase a suite of military aircraft from Russia, including the advanced Su-35 fighter jets, according to Iranian state media reports dating 2023 November 28. The finalized deal also includes Mi-28 attack helicopters and Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft, Deputy Defense Minister Mehdi Farahi confirmed. Although the Yak-130s have been arriving in Iran since early 2023 September, there are currently no confirmed deliveries of Su-35s or Mi-28s, and Moscow has yet to publicly acknowledge the deal.
The burgeoning military relationship between Iran and Russia represents a strategic shift with implications reaching far beyond their borders. Experts suggest cautious optimism about the aircraft acquisition report as Iran has previously claimed finalized deals for Su-35s that did not materialize. John Hardie, Deputy Director of FDD’s Russia Program, cautioned about the recent report, pointing out the possibility of Iran exchanging short-range ballistic missiles for fighter jets, thus bolstering Russia’s capacity for striking Ukraine.
Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power, highlighted that the Su-35s could greatly enhance Iran’s aircraft capabilities compared to their current fleet, with the ultimate impact dependent on factors like integration with Iran’s air defense systems. The strengthened ties between Russia and Iran present a “serious problem” for Western and regional allies, Bowman noted, advocating for a collective response to this Russian-Iranian axis.
Adding to the sentiment, FDD Senior Fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu remarked, “Seeing is believing when it comes to the Su-35 deal.” He posited that while these jets would not transform Iran into a military superpower overnight, they would enhance its hybrid military capabilities, complicating Western military planning, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Historically, Iran’s intentions to procure Su-35s date back to conversations in September 2022, with reports later in December suggesting that Iranian pilots had undergone training on the Su-35 in Russia, indicating that deliveries could commence within a year. This was described by U.S. officials as part of Russia’s substantial military support for Iran in the context of the war in Ukraine.
Earlier month in 2023, there were reports suggesting Iran’s plans to deploy the Su-35s at a newly constructed underground airbase. Nevertheless, conflicting statements from Iranian military officials and opposition from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates regarding the sale have raised questions about the agreement’s likelihood.
In the broader context of military exchanges, Russia’s relationship with Iran has witnessed Tehran supplying Moscow with drone technology used against Ukraine. In the most extensive drone assault on Kyiv this month, Russia deployed 75 Iranian-built Shahed loitering munitions. The anticipated delivery of Su-35s to Iran could serve as a testament to Moscow’s ability to secure new arms export contracts despite sanctions and supply chain disruptions.
The reported military agreement arrives as Ukrainian air defense has been effectively aiming at Russian jets, bringing down six in three days in February 2024. Although the Russian air force can handle these losses, the rising attrition rate, if continuous, presents a notable worry.
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