On March 2, 2024, amidst the background of a war that has raged for over two years, the Russian military faced a significant setback. The day marked one of the busiest for open-source analyst Andrew Perpetua, who tracks the daily toll of the Russia-Ukraine conflict through social media, satellite imagery, and other sources. On this day, he tallied a total of 97 losses, 84 of which were Russian vehicles, a stark increase from the daily average and an indication of the intensifying conflict around the Ukrainian defensive stronghold of Avdiivka.
The battle for Avdiivka had seen the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies engaged in a four-month-long campaign. The cost of their pyrrhic victory was high, with an estimated 16,000 Russian soldiers killed, tens of thousands more wounded, and the loss of around 700 vehicles. Despite these losses, the Russians continued their push, chasing the retreating Ukrainian 110th Brigade.
However, as the Russian military advanced, they met the renewed resistance of the Ukrainian 47th, 3rd, and 57th Brigades at the subsequent line of defense. This resolute stand was empowered by increased ammunition deliveries from European allies, which enabled Ukraine to actively defend and halt the Russian advance. “Russian forces, which have suffered high personnel and equipment losses in seizing Avdiivka, will likely culminate when they come up against relatively fresher Ukrainian units manning prepared defensive positions,” ISW stated at the time.
Meanwhile, the British Defense Ministry released an assessment acknowledging Russia’s staggering daily casualty rate in February, with nearly 1,000 troops a day. This approach to “mass and attritional warfare” underscored President Vladimir Putin’s apparent disregard for the lives of his soldiers. Russia’s casualty figures matched or even surpassed the original force strength from the onset of the invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, highlighting his country’s resilience amid unrelenting attacks and waiting on vital supplies, particularly from the United States, drew attention to the strain on Ukrainian forces.
The high number of Russian casualties and vehicle losses on March 2 may well represent the limit of their offensive capabilities in the direction of Avdiivka, at least for the time being. It is a testament to the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defensive strategies and the support from European allies, in contrast to the United States, which has not delivered aid since the previous year due to political stalemate in Congress.
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